(1) Development of the global new energy vehicle industry
Under the global consensus on responding to climate change and promoting the transformation to a low-carbon economy, the popularization of electric vehicles, the application of smart technologies and the promotion of green travel have become strategic priorities for all countries. This trend is accelerating the structural changes in the new energy vehicle industry. Major economies around the world have actively deployed new energy vehicle technology research and development, industrial ecology and market cultivation through industrial policy guidance, fiscal subsidy support and tax incentives, in order to establish core advantages in the new round of global industrial competition. Therefore, traditional car companies have accelerated their transformation to electrification. The global car company sales ranking in 2024 is as follows:
According to global car sales statistics, among the top ten car companies in 2024, traditional giants such as Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai Kia still occupy a dominant position. They continue to accelerate the layout of the new energy vehicle field and increase the penetration rate of new energy vehicles.
According to statistics from the IEA International Energy Agency, EVTank and the Ivy Economic Research Institute, the compound growth rate of global new energy vehicle sales from 2018 to 2024 reached 43.78%, especially since 2021, global new energy vehicle sales have shown explosive growth, and global new energy vehicle sales will reach 18.236 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.45%.
Global new energy vehicle sales are mainly concentrated in the three major markets of China, Europe and the United States, among which China’s new energy vehicle sales account for more than 50% of global sales, and Europe and the United States will sell 2.89 million and 1.573 million new energy vehicles in 2024 respectively.
According to EVTank’s forecast, global new energy vehicle sales will reach 22.397 million units in 2025, of which China will reach 16.497 million units, and global new energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 44.05 million units in 2030.
Data source: IEA International Energy Agency, EVTank, Ivey Economic Research Institute, Sihan Industry Research Institute
(2) Development of my country’s new energy vehicle industry
The development of China’s new energy vehicle industry has entered the mature stage from the incubation period. Driven by policies and markets, it has formed a certain first-mover advantage in the world. From the demand side, with the in-depth implementation of “dual carbon” and environmental protection related policies, consumers’ recognition of environmental protection has increased, and the addition of intelligence has significantly increased consumers’ recognition of new energy vehicles. From the supply side, the experience and performance of new energy vehicles continue to improve.
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from 2018 to 2024, my country’s new energy vehicle sales will show a trend of sustained growth, with a compound growth rate of 47.37% in new energy vehicle sales. In particular, in 2022, sales will increase significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 95.60%, and the market demand for new energy vehicles will become increasingly strong. At the same time, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles is also increasing year by year, from 4.47% in 2018 to 40.93% in 2024.
Data source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, Tonghuashun iFind Sihan
In 2024, the competition pattern of China’s new energy vehicle market will further differentiate, and the advantages of leading brands will continue to expand, according to the statistics of the China Passenger Car Association.
According to the “New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)” issued by the General Office of the State Council at the end of 2020, it is required that by 2025, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach about 20% of the total sales volume of new vehicles. The sales growth rate of new energy vehicles in my country has far exceeded expectations and has achieved the goal ahead of schedule.
With the improvement of the competitive advantages of domestic new energy vehicles in the fields of three-electric technology and intelligent driving, the international influence is increasing. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, China will export 2.2388 million new energy vehicles in 2024, an increase of 465,600 vehicles from 2023, a year-on-year increase of 26.26%.
In 2024, my country’s new energy vehicle sales accounted for 71% of the global new energy vehicle sales, and the sales scale ranked first in the world for ten consecutive years, continuing to maintain the world’s largest new energy vehicle consumer market position.
With the promotion and acceleration of the global dual carbon action, my country has successively launched a number of targeted policies and planning outlines. The implementation of the new energy vehicle points system and the continuation of the subsidy policy have provided a stable development environment for the continued growth of my country’s new energy vehicle market. At the same time, the investment layout of traditional fuel vehicle companies in the field of new energy vehicles has expanded rapidly, and the number of new entrants in the new energy vehicle industry has continued to increase. These have added new development momentum and growth space to my country’s new energy vehicle market.
(3) The scale of power battery production capacity continues to expand
With the continued rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry, the power battery industry has also shown a strong growth momentum. According to statistics from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in 2024, China’s cumulative production of power batteries and other batteries will be 1,096.80GWh, a year-on-year increase of 40.96%; the cumulative export of power batteries will be 133.70GWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.95%; the cumulative installed capacity of power batteries will be 548.40GWh, a year-on-year increase of 41.45%.
Among them, the cumulative installed capacity of ternary batteries was 139.00GWh, accounting for 25.35% of the total installed capacity, an increase of 10.14% year-on-year; the cumulative installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 409.00GWh, accounting for 74.58% of the total installed capacity, an increase of 56.70% year-on-year.
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